Electricity demand is soaring, and the global supply of power transformers is tight as never before
British media: Electricity demand is soaring, and the global supply of power transformers is tight as never before
[Global Times special Reporter Zhen Xiang] For some time, the problem of tight supply in the global power transformer market has become increasingly prominent. The British "Financial Times" reported on the 3rd that for a long time, the power transformer market has been oversupplied, and the general order can arrive in 6 to 8 months. But in the past two years, as the rapid development of data centers has driven electricity demand soaring, power companies have been flooded with orders, resulting in a supply cycle of three to four years.
Transformers are essential for changing the voltage, allowing electricity to flow efficiently from the power plant to the end user. The Norwegian consulting firm Rez-Energy predicts that by 2030, the global transformer market is expected to increase significantly from the current $48 billion to $67 billion. Analysts of the agency bluntly said that power transformers are the most prominent key power grid equipment in the current supply shortage problem, and the industry is facing unprecedented pressure due to the difficulty of increasing production, and it is expected that the shortage of transformer supply will continue until at least the end of 2026.
According to the Financial Times, transformer production is a labor-intensive industry that requires special winding machines, which take many years to purchase and prepare, and manufacturers are wary of over-investing.
Andreas Hillenbeck, chief executive of Hitachi Energy, a unit of Japan's Hitachi, the world's largest transformer maker, told the Financial Times that transformer makers were struggling to ramp up capacity quickly enough to meet the demand for power equipment in data centres and that the industry was "overwhelmed". Hitachi Energy will invest $6 billion over the next three years and hire 15,000 new employees to expand capacity. Hillenbeck believes that the transformer industry is unlikely to have overcapacity problems in the short term.
The U.S. National Infrastructure Advisory Council released a report in June this year that pointed out that the U.S. power grid is facing an unprecedented imbalance in power transformer supply and demand, which seriously threatens the stability and reliability of the future power grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory in the United States released a report in the first half of this year that pointed out that by 2050, the supply of distribution transformers should be increased by 160% to 260% compared with 2021 to meet the energy needs of residential, commercial, industrial and transportation in the United States. The National Infrastructure Advisory Council has recommended that increasing domestic production of transformers and related critical components in the United States will be the best choice to solve the transformer supply shortage.
The Financial Times is concerned that in the past two years, China's transformer export sales have soared. According to the research report of China Zhesheng Securities in the first half of this year, Chinese transformer manufacturers have advantages such as stable supply of raw materials, low production costs, and strong technical capabilities. Under the background of short supply in the overseas transformer market, they are now ushering in historic opportunities for development at sea. Last year, China's transformer exports reached 37.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 27%. In the future, the global transformer market will maintain its growth trend, and the overseas market share of Chinese manufacturers is expected to further increase.
However, there are still some barriers to electrical equipment entering overseas markets in the early stages. A research report of Soowu Securities mentioned that domestic transformer enterprises are facing multiple thresholds such as channels, product certification, tariffs, etc., but in the medium and long term, overseas markets are attractive and the prospects are very broad.
According to a research report published by CICC in August, China is currently the largest importer of transformers in the EU, and China has a certain performance and brand foundation, which is expected to further open the European market by virtue of technical strength and cost-effective advantages.
Post time:
11-11-2024
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